Shorting Noobs - Style Adaptions and the Search for Sustainability
Part  So in the first week of this an account initially funded with $10,000 got to around $40,000 / $45,000, but it was wild. The drawdown swings were large. Equity swings were what I would describe as problematic. My broker agreed. I got a call from them and it went a bit like this; "Hi, Whatthefx (yes, me and the broker are on first name terms). One of your new accounts has done a lot volume this week. I was wondering if you're going to continue to trade so aggressively? Can we expect the same volume this week?" I replied; "Of course not. I started last week with $10,000 and now there is $40,000. It would be fair to assume I will trade four times as much volume this week". They advised me if I did this, in the near future we'd be having a discussion about re-evaluating how much leverage the broker would offer me. I told them I could not believe they'd speak to me like this after all we'd been through. "You've changed, man" I ruefully muttered into the phone. He told me risk compliance was getting edgy, and they felt the best solution would be to reduce my leverage. I told them to a hammer everything looks like a nail. They told me this hammer was about to come down. Long story short, compromises has to be made. I decided to split accounts and reduce risk acceptance on both of them (dramatically on the larger of the two accounts). I started an account with $25,000 running a very similar but slightly watered down version of the initial strategy. I then started another account with $50,000 and used this to trade against people who consistently bet against trending moves. Vrs scalpers results: https://preview.redd.it/f2ixgaz8lsh31.png?width=923&format=png&auto=webp&s=2aa495b2df70e32cd49d7ce6786a8dac652c928c As a recovered "Trend doubter", I understand the mindset of people who fade the trend too aggressively. There is a fine line between being an effective contrarian and just being dumb enough to think you're smarter than the entire market. When you're the latter, you come to learn the infallible truth in the saying "A fool and his money are soon separated". I take a bit of time to snoop on those I am reverse copying from. Through some statistical analysis and good old fashioned reading through their feeds on platforms they promote themselves I seek out the ones who have die hard doubt on the existence of strong trends and also with some ingrained belief that the fib levels are irrelevant. I find the ones most die hard against these things. It's easier to find committed doubters of fibs than it is of trends. I find those who are the most extreme on this bell curve. Some of them are practically evangelical about how sceptical they are of fibs. I take these people and pay particular attention to their trades. Most specifically I run analysis to see how the trades they make at important fib levels perform. I have a few I look at but the most important one for basic trend following is the 61.8% fib (explained in previous post). I find an extremely high correlation between the people who know so much better than us who like to use fibs and them consistently making losing trades at important fib levels. https://preview.redd.it/vxu0ehnrlsh31.png?width=266&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc5692b1677ae4a4af1c5ac7c177c4f3cc6680b3 This is all I need to feel confident sticking some money on this. I make some filters to allow me to copy their mistakes and dodge the times they are more likely to be correct. I add some other ways to identify strong trends. I include some aspects of ATR, ADX and MAs. I also do some lot sizes rules to prevent them from martingaling against me. I do not want to let them accumulate larger and larger positions against me on the slight breakouts of the 61.8% level, because there is a high chance of there being a retest of that level. If they close all their positions there, this will give me a net loss. Vrs trend faders results: https://preview.redd.it/bz7mp4xelsh31.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=91f17d291a135a772bbf5048a72b038fcba0c5a4
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
Although it might seem easy to invest in Forex nowadays, by just logging into an account with a broker, deposit some money and start actively trading; it has not always been like this, as forex industry has rapidly changed in the past three decades. Before technology and free-floating currencies took over the industry, world currency exchanges were operating under the Bretton Woods System of Money Management. This agreement established rules for commercial and financial relations among top economies, tying their currencies to gold. Hence, a currency note issued by any world government represented a real amount of gold held in a vault by that nation. When in July 1944 delegates from all over the world sign off the pact, the main goal was to reduce lack of cooperation between countries and therefore avoiding currency wars. This process of regulating the foreign exchange brought to the foundation of the international money fund (IMF) and the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), today part of World bank Group. However, in the early 70s the real-world economics outpaced the system, dollar suffered from severe inflation cutting its value by half. At that time unemployment rate was 6.1% and inflation 5.84%. Finally, in August 1971, U.S. government led by Richard Nixon took away gold standard, creating the first fiat currency and replacing Bretton Woods System with De Facto. Together with this there were other important measures taken by the USA president to combat that high inflation regime:
This decision was driven by many European nations asking to redeem their dollars for gold, till leaving Bretton Woods System. This had an enormous impact on USD which plunged against European currencies. Consequently, USA congress release a report suggesting USD devaluation to protect the currency from foreign gougers. However, dollar dropped again, and Treasury Secretary was directed to suspend the USD convertibility with gold; hence foreign governments could no longer exchange their USD with gold.
The inflation level was skyrocketing and one more action taken by Nixon was to freeze all wages and prices for 90 days, this was the first time since WWII.
Import surcharge of 10% was set up to safeguard American products ensuring no disadvantage in trades.
Today, USD dominates financial markets, accounting together with the EURO, for approximately 50% of all currency exchange transactions in the world. 1971 represents the beginning of a new forex trading era, bringing this market to be the largest and most liquid in the world, with an average of daily trading volume exceeding $5trn. All the world’s combined stock markets don t even come close to this, what does this mean to you? In an environment which is controlled by free-floating currencies moving constantly, following principles of supply and demand, there are constant and exciting trading opportunities, unavailable when investing in different markets. In this article are shared main features of what is forex trading today and how can be an incredible new source of income for everyone who is into financial markets.
What Is Forex?
Forex is the acronym for foreign exchange which intends to be a decentralized or over the counter (OTC) marketplace, where currencies from all over the world are traded 24 hours, five days a week. Main financial centres include New York, Chicago, London, Tokyo and Frankfurt for Eurozone. It is by far the largest market in the world in terms of volume, followed by the credit market. Being highly liquid is an important feature that allows traders to be able to enter and exit their positions very quickly. Nevertheless, while trading forex, an investor should be aware of several components: Dynamicity – forex is an extremely fast environment, this means that currency rates can move very fast, influenced by price action signals and fundamental factors. Therefore, going into forex trading, one needs to be aware of adopting serious risk and money management strategies in order to be effective, limiting losses. Zero Sum Game – trading forex is not like investing in the stock market but is known to be a zero-sum game. For example, going into the equity market buying some tech shares, they could both rise or decrease in value. In forex is different because currencies work in pairs; for instance, an investor decides Euro will go up he or she is doing it against another currency. Thus, in this specific marketplace one currency will rise while the other will fall, meaning an investor is buying the currency hoping it will appreciate to the other, or selling the one that will depreciate. See image below: Figure 1: Main traded currency pairs https://preview.redd.it/vu77ziuoyle31.png?width=574&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b1693bf27508fcb142705c309de1fc5b3e8fa19 Currency pairs are composed by a base and a price currency. Main forex trading principle is how much price currency an investor can buy using 1 unit of the base, thus, the base currency, which is the first one in line within the quotation, is always equal to 1. Because like every financial instrument currency pairs are driven by fundamentals of supply and demand, forex is intensively influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. Capital Markets – these are the most visible indicators of a country economic health, where usually the healthier the economy the stronger the currency. For example, a rapid sell-off from a country will show that nation is not economically stable, subsequently investors will think negatively of it depreciating its currency. Moreover, many countries are sector driven, this means that their currencies are strictly correlated with certain resources. For instance, Canada which is a commodity-based market, CAD is strictly linked to price of Brent and metals, a swing in those will affect the Canadian currency. Finally, credit market is also connected to forex since also relies heavily on interest rate so, a change in bond yield will have major impact on currency prices. like increase in yield will favour bullish market for USD International Trade – Trade levels serve as a proxy for relative demand of goods from a nation, a country which goods and services that are in high demand internationally, will experience an appreciation to its currency. This is an effect driven by all other countries converting their currencies into the one of that state to purchase its goods and services. Let’s say a product from USA is in high demand globally, all the other countries must sell their currencies to buy dollars to then see their goods shipped, thus USD will appreciate. Trade surplus and deficit also indicate a nation competitive standing in international trade. Countries with a large trade deficit are usually importers resulting in more of their currencies being sold to buy goods worldwide, thus they will see their currencies devaluate. Geopolitics – The political landscape of a nation places a major role in the economic outlook for that country and consequently, the perceived value of its own currency. Beside building up price action strategies, based purely on price levels, forex traders constantly look at economic calendars and news to gauge what could move currencies. A geopolitical event which is having a great impact on GBP, is the election of Boris Johnson as UK prime minister, driving the local currency to 2 years low, yesterday 29th of July 2019. Therefore, when investors observe instability from a nation political environment, there are high chances that the currency of that country will depreciate.
Why Trading Forex
Beside swapping from a gold standard to free-floating, which change the whole forex trading game, technology is another crucial factor that helped this financial sector to spread globally. With the introduction of internet in the 90s forex opened to retail investors giving access to various trading platforms. The introduction of online platforms and retail investments have increased forex market volume by 5%, up to $250bn of its daily turnover. Different traders may have different reasons for selecting forex, however, mostly is because this is a fertile market plenty of daily opportunities to gauge price action and profit from it.
How traders profit from trading forex? Basics of trading are rather simple to understand. An investor buys an asset at a certain price hoping to get rid of it for a higher price. The more volatile is the market for that specific financial instrument, the more revenue is possible to make. Therefore, a trader is looking for long up and down moves rather than market fluctuating sideways. Volatility is great in forex and a trader can expect to regularly see prices oscillating 50-100 pips on major currency pairs almost any day of the week. Yet again, due to this enormous constant fluctuation, potential losses or gains can be very high thus, rigours money management must be applied to avoid major damages and become a profitable trader. To conclude, volatility is the main characteristic investors are looking at and that is why it is one of the main feature traders can take advantage. See image below: Figure 2: FDAX Volatility, H4 (30th May 2019, 16:00, 30th July 2019, 16:00)
Accessibility & Technology
While volatility is the most important element out in the market that tell us why forex is the best market to trade, accessibility comes straight after. This market is more accessible than all the others, trading forex requires an online desk position and as little as $100 to start off an account. In comparison with the other financial markets, forex requires a rather low trading capital. Moreover, trading forex can be easily accessible from your PC, tablet or mobile since most of retail broker firms operate online. Although, accessibility cannot tell the quality of the market by itself, it definitely shows a reason why many investors try their first trading experience on forex. Also, the rapid introduction of technology since the 90s, made trading much easier. There are every year more advanced online platforms to trade on with many possible updates and that is why trading forex is edging for many global investors.
Before the introduction of free-floating currency and more importantly cutting hedge technology, forex was a market that could have been traded only by institutional investors. Nowadays however, even retail and individual investor can take advantage of the huge volume forex offers every day. Banks Interbank market is the major responsible for the high volume registered daily in forex. This is the place where banks exchange currency among each other, facilitating forex transactions for customers and speculate for their trading desks.
Clients transactions: in this case banks of all size act as dealer for clients, where the bid-ask spread represents the profit for the institutions.
Speculation: currencies are traded to profit from their price fluctuations as well as to increase diversification on their portfolio
Because banking institutions are the biggest players in foreign exchange market, they are able to push up and down the price of currencies giving an extreme advantage and higher volatility to individual traders who are trying to gauge price moves. Central Banks Central banks representing their nation’s government, are crucial in forex. They oversee monetary and fiscal policies having massive influence on currency rates. A central bank is responsible for fixing the price level of its native currency on the market, in other words they take care of the regime currencies will float in the open market.
Floating: these are the currencies which price floats on the open market based on principles of supply and demand relative to other currencies
Pegged (fixed exchange rate): opposite to floating currencies pegged ones are not free-floating in the open market however, their government rather tie them to the value of a stronger foreign currency. Pegged currencies are more seen in developing countries (CYN to USD).
Because central banks manage interest rates in order to increase the competitiveness of their native nation to another.
Dovish: these policies will be lowering down interest rates. A central bank which applies dovish conditions aims to give economic stimulus and guard against deflation. Usually a policy intended to give economy stimulus will weakening the currency value.
Hawkish: on the other hand, hawkish policies lead to an increase in interest rate. A central bank that uses hawkish measures aims to reduce inflation. Typically, this kind of policies will reinforce the country currency value.
Investment Managers & Hedge Funds Portfolio managers and hedge funds are the second investors in forex after central and investment banks. They are hired by huge institutions such as pension to manage their assets. However while portfolio managers of pool funds will buy currency to speculate on foreign securities, hedge funds execute speculative trades as part of their strategies. Corporations Also international corporation play a big role in forex. Those firms operating globally, buying and selling goods and services are involved in forex transactions daily. Imagine an American company producing pipes that imports Japanese components and sell the finished product to China. After the sale is closed the CYN must be converted back to USD, while the American company must exchange USD into JPY to repay for the components supply. Moreover, company involved in international trade have an interest in forex in order to hedge the risk associated with currencies fluctuations making several foreign exchange transactions. For instance, the same American company might buy JPY at spot rate, or enter a swap agreement to obtain JPY in advance, overtaking the risk of the Japanese currency to rise in the future. Therefore, forex become crucial to run companies with many subsidiaries and suppliers all over the word. Individual & Retail Investors Even though this investor cluster brings to forex a very limited volume compared to financial institutions and corporations, it is rapidly growing in numbers and popularity. These base their trades on a mixture of fundamentals and technical analysis. Bottom line, main reason why forex is the most traded market in the world is because gives everyone, from top financial institutions to retail and individual trades, opportunities to make returns on capital invested from currencies price fluctuations related to global economy.
Record Factor Correlation May Explain Misfiring Quant ModelsSHARE THIS ARTICLECall it the curious case of correlation? Co-movements between factors, or investments based on a particular style such as growth or momentum, have reached the highest level in at least two decades, according to research from Sanford C Bernstein Ltd.The move is unusual and poses an additional headache for quantitative funds after a difficult year, according to Bernstein’s Head of Global Quantitative and European Equity Strategy Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, who once suggested that passive investing was worse for society than Marxism. While correlations typically tick higher during big selloffs, he said, individual stocks haven’t been moving in lockstep as much as factor groupings in recent weeks.“This is the first time that we have seen this,” the analysts wrote. “This implies there has been a significant change in the structure of the market.”Quant strategists have spent years telling investors they could beat bench..... Continue reading at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/record-factor-correlation-may-explain-misfiring-quant-models
An analysis of the Japanese Yen, and key drivers of currency.
I've been seeing interesting moves in the macroeconomic markets, especially when it comes to Japan. They're a fun case study, read up on abenomics, their NIRP, aging population, etc...there's a deep rabbit hole you can get in when it comes to global markets. I've heard people bitching about the currency market not making sense after Japan adopts NIRP yet the Yen is appreciating. Boo fucking hoo. Interest rates aren't the only driver of currency. In order to understand what's going on with the Yen, you should be paying attention to a few things: a. monetary policy: typically higher interest rates means currency appreciation. More printing means depreciation. b. trade balance: more demand (i.e. increasing positive net exports) means currency appreciation. Japanese net exports have been on a sharp rise since 2014 shifting from a net negative to net positive exporter. c. GDP: there a positive correlation between rising GDP and currency appreciation. As aggregate demand goes up, currencies rise. If you know anything about economics, I just said the same thing twice. Japanese GDP has seen many ups and downs since the mid-90s amid growing global GDP, but generally flat. d. debt: this really comes into play when a country is neck deep in shit and defaults on their bonds. Not a huge influence for developed countries IMO. It should be pointed out that Japan has a very high debt-to-gdp ratio.Holy fuck batman 229%? e. other countries: what's happening with inflation? Let's take the U.S. for example. The fed believes that gradual rate hikes will be prudent. This, as we know, should cause the USD to appreciate, holding all else equal. One effect rising interest rates creates is that it will result in higher inflation. Now, this is where I get to the relationship between inflation and currency. If international inflation is high relative to domestic inflation, this will have an appreciating influence on domestic interest exchange rates. Among other factors, this is because goods in Japan are cheaper relative to goods in the USA. If the USA and Japan were the only two countries in the world, if the US is creating a rise in inflation, and Japan is creating a drop in inflation , this means, holding everything equal, the Yen appreciates. While simplistic, it helps illustrate a very complex relationship. There are many countries in the world, with different rates of inflation. I think a lot of countries can be treated as "noise" when trading pairs or inferring moves in equity markets from implications in the forex market. Key currencies are the USD, Yen, EUR, GBP, China, etc. When I model currencies, I look at the size of an economy as well. So inflation in the USA and China (which are both rising) will have a greater influence than in South Africa, for example. So how do you YOLO this shit? First of all, I'm not going to tell you what to buy or sell. That's up to you. But consider this. Knowing what you know now, before making a trade decision, think to yourself: how do moves in the ForEx market influence equities, bonds, etc.? What do you think Abe will do next? What about the rest of the world? What are the big banks and market makers doing? Here's a chart of the USD/YEN with some key fib levels at a Q311 low to a Q116 high. Once you formulate a good hypothesis go ahead and smash that buy/sell button.
Trade direct on the forex market with leverage (very risky if you're a retard who doesn't know what they are doing). Great way to lose more than what you invested, but also a great way to earn handsome returns, so I would consider it /wsb appropriate. Bonus points if you can get over 200x leverage.
Leveraged ETFs: JPNL (3x equities bull), JPNS (3x equities bear), JGBT (3x gvt. bond bull), JGBD (3x gvt. bond bear) - these aren't very liquid. Bonds have lower movement I wouldn't consider them as rewarding as the first two if you're day trading.
British born entrepreneur William West is set to go “toe to toe” with major institutions around the world with his, one of a kind, applied artificial intelligence organisation Invacio. Created over the last 5 years William’s brainchild is far more than your average chatbot or sentiment scraper creating tech company. In point of fact it is such a powerful system that Invacio were invited to make their inaugural presentation in front of the United Nations during a UNESCAP FDI meeting in Thailand last year. The main elements that have made the elite sit up and take notice are Invacio’s flexibility and shere data processing capabilities. When you have a system that is plugged into thousands upon thousands of data sources with the capacity to analyse and correlate everything from historical market exchange data, and live news feeds with satellite data, and social media interactions, to formulate comprehensive reports and predictions for virtually any industry on earth, it tends to make an impact when people become aware of it. Data crunching leviathans are ten a penny, in this day and age, so what is so unique about invacio that world leaders invite them to elaborate the details in front of them? That is the secret sauce: a multi agent deep neural network that constantly learns from the data coming in and its own self created distinct datasets. A system that is aware enough of its own data requirements that it literally sourced its own hacking software to gain access to some data it really wanted to see (that got shut down immediately and new rules were implemented “no entry means no entry”). Wealth generation and crisis management were two of the areas explored during the initial UN presentation and since then further, more detailed, discussions have continued behind closed doors. First off the bat the sector which is going to feel the full force of Invacio, muscling its way in, is the finance sector, initially they will be putting “Agnes” into the ring. A subscription based service which monitors 2995 stocks/shares and the main forex pairs, Agnes will provide highly accurate short term price predictions to whomever pays the fees be that professionals looking to get ahead of the game or hobbyist day traders looking to put a lump sum away for their future. With accuracy levels regularly running between 92 & 98% on any given trade, with the correct type of equity management trading might just become fun again, even during downturns. Next up will be an onslaught to capture institutional money through the application of AI directly into the hedge fund market, Aquila, Archimedes and Tomahawk are the names given to these funds. Archimedes will be a human/AI hybrid fund that applies predictions made by Agnes and actioned by a human fund manager. In a 16 week experiment, with real money, Archimedes showed growth of 79%. Tomahawk is a long term forecasting system which looks anywhere from 6 months to 2 years into the future. Aquila will be a combination of all of these with the addition of invacio’s full market oversight (all commodities, shares, indices and forex pairs) Other markets that will feel the wrath of Invacio are, Market intelligence, communications, social networking, data provision and Global security but they are a different story altogether. Invacio are currently undergoing an ICO (initial coin offering) in order to fund the roll out of Their various divisions. The coins sold during the sale will be directly connected to the use of Invacios products find out more here www.invest.invacio.com
Concrete problem : I need help from a statistician/actuary/someone who owns at covariance and correlation calculations
Hi reddit, I am a long time reader and I know your power. first and foremost, I am aware of the fury you unleash at people incult to your writing rules so please forgive any syntax errors or bad grammar from my posts, since english is not my primary language (I am a canadian frenchie). I am currently working on a pet project in the domain of finance that is becoming quite big. Briefly, I am devising an automated method to make money out of the forex market, based on statistical analysis. I am reasonably successful as of now, and in order to optimize my method even more, I realize that I need the help of someone who masters statistics even better than me. Being a programmer myself, I am quite litterate in it, but I am far from a PhD in probability theory. There could be a lot to talk about, but here is the basics of what I am looking for : I want to optimize my expected return/risk, something along the lines of the Capital asset pricing model. I have a system that trades different currency pairs (e.g.: USDCAD, EURGBP, etc.) from monday to thursday, every week. For now it is always trading evenly. The same position size are opened for every trade, always. What I would like to achieve may resemble Asset Allocation, but applied to the ensemble of trades that are opened (which are in fact random variables) instead of to the traditional assets used (stocks, bonds, etc.). I would achieve such an optimization by adjusting the position taken (representing a weight, or % of equity risked) for each currency pair traded for each weekday. The positions taken can be adjusted depending on many factors I think, especially like the correlation between each and every currency pair traded. I guess some sort of correlation analysis, or using a covariance matrix or something would be the way to go but I am not even sure myself. This is where I am starting to get lost. But the goal I want to achieve is to optimize the positions taken (risk) by adjusting how big of a position will be taken for each trade, every day. Enough talking, any questions and ideas so far? Don't hesitate to PM me if you would really be interested by this project and are highly skilled in statistics and probabilty theory.
How come there has been so much focus on EURJPY and USDJPY lately? It seems to be some kind of leading indicator as to how equities/commodities will do but I can't see the connection. What do people mean by carry trade and unwind? Are there any other trends between currencies that reflect in the stock market and commodities? I know the Canadian and Australian dollar tend to be highly correlated with commodities in that respect. I don't even trade forex (yet), just trying to learn about it and incorporate it into my regular trading/investing. Thanks
Forex trading as we know is not everyone’s cup of tea. It requires some fundamental knowledge and awareness of technical indicators. Risk management is one of the key ingredients of successful trading and this is where correlation trading comes in. These strategies call for understanding the correlation between currency pairs so as to avoid overtrading. A correlation strategy calls for ... Furthermore the (2nd chart) shows the negative correlation between the Dow and USD. If we expect stock prices to move lower, this would most likely occur alongside a strengthening USD. Again, as ... Type in the correlation criteria to find the least and/or most correlated forex currencies in real time. Correlation ranges from -100% to +100%, where -100% represents currencies moving in opposite directions (negative correlation) and +100% represents currencies moving in the same direction. Click on a correlation number to view a historical correlation analysis and compare it against other ... Relationship between stocks and Forex is not this simple. Their correlation may change from time to time depending on the global financial condition. Like way before financial crises of 2007 Nikkei and USDJPY were inversely correlated but soon after that they become positively correlated. So you better not depend on just correlations. Fundamentals and technical’s are way more important ... Meaning of currency pairs correlation in Forex. Correlation is a statistical measure of the relationship between two trading assets. Currency correlation shows the extent to which two currency pairs have moved in the same, opposite, or completely random directions within a particular period. Analysis of two asset relationships using past statistical data has predictive value. By utilising the ... Correlation between different markets is something that everyone seems to have their own opinion. We’re going to make a few generalizations that is common between the majority of traders. Metals and the Australian markets/dollar can show a relationship between each other. Oil and the Canadian markets/dollar can show a relationship because of the huge oil exports Canada has with their natural ... A major equity market can also influence forex markets in another way. A weak currency favors exporters in that particular country. When your domestic currency is weak, exports are cheaper abroad.
How Currency Correlation Works in Forex Trading - YouTube
When currency pairs are correlated, it increases the probability of identifying winning forex trading setups. These are essential Forex trading strategies fo... Get more tips: http://www.tradingheroes.com/blog/ The economies of certain countries are highly correlated to commodity markets. For example, the Canadian ec... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. If you want to watch me go into more detail about currency correlation and other great trading strategies sign up for a webinar. https://goo.gl/CNT69S Unders... https://www.forexboat.com/ Get Your Free Membership Now! Correlation is the statistical measure of how two currencies move in relation to each other. Currenc... In this webinar, Navin will be go over how the Urban Forex Strength Meter can be used to help you use Correlation with your Forex trading. Correlation can be...